Posted by Larry Hoover on May 10, 2006, at 11:28:31
In reply to Re: Statistical question on SSRIs - Psychobabble s » Larry Hoover, posted by Squiggles on May 10, 2006, at 9:05:07
> First, sorry about your medical problem. Best
> of luck.Thank you.
> > > A plot of "all cause suicide deaths" against "total population" for consecutive time periods would yield a graph where the first derivative, the slope, is equal to the rate.
> > >
>
> OK - i will try to follow this; i hope you will
> be patient; i really am innumerate:
>
> The rate of suicide = the number of suicides over
> "consecutive years" from all causes?Divided by the population, which yields numbers such as 22 suicides per 100,000 population, per year.
> > > The rate was stable over two periods of time, but different, one from the other. One time period of stable rate preceded the stable rate seen around the time of the SSRIs. Inferences were drawn.
> > >
> > > Lar
> >
>
> A stable rate before the introduction of Prozac
> in the market, could be a low rate of suicide or
> a high rate of suicide.Exactly so. And we might call that stable rate the baseline rate.
> > Then I went into blather, which is why my brain called a halt to the proceedings. I have a weird brain.
> >
> Well, it seems to be functioning better than mine.We trained in different things.
> > http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&dopt=Abstract&list_uids=16582062
> >
> > Therein, it is stated that, "In all four countries decreases in suicide rates appeared to precede the widespread use...
>
> Is a suicide rate decrease preceding widespread
> use of ADs (incl. SSRIs) equivalent to an
> increase in suicide rate in the increase rate
> of SSRI use?It seems to suggest that other social factors also changed. However, SSRI use did not seem to change that existing stable regime, even during the period of astronomical increase in prescription rates for the SSRI drugs as a class. In other words, we must look elsewhere than SSRIs for the change in baseline suicide rate over the comparative periods.
> It's a statistical inference
> that does not seem to take into account the
> counterexample studies, as well as other possible factors in the country, age, social events, and
> personal circumstances. Wow, is this the way
> science is done?This sort of science is nothing more than the equivalent of going through your old files, and only then noticing that your phone bill changed dramatically, or whatever. These specific studies examined records which already existed, and that were collected independently of each other (suicide records vs. drug sale records). Then, restrospectively, somebody compared the data in the files.
> ...........
> > As my intent here has been to show that SSRI-induction hypothesis has an upper bound, this new evidence is also consistent with my earlier conclusions.
> >
> > If I had evidence to support your hypothesis, Squiggles, I'd show you. I haven't found any, yet.
> >
> > Lar
> >
>
> Thank you. I am really sorry that i am
> past my level of incompetence now. Maybe
> others can understand the meaning of these
> stastical studies better than I.It's always worth the effort, to try.
> Good luck recovering from your medical test.
>
> SquigglesThanks.
Lar
poster:Larry Hoover
thread:640557
URL: http://www.dr-bob.org/babble/20060510/msgs/642131.html