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Dr. Bob is Robert Hsiung, MD,
bob@dr-bob.orgShown: posts 1 to 12 of 12. This is the beginning of the thread.
Posted by linkadge on November 17, 2013, at 15:58:38
thats my prediction.
Linkadge
Posted by sigismund on November 17, 2013, at 16:53:15
In reply to market crash in 3-6 months?, posted by linkadge on November 17, 2013, at 15:58:38
Always good to have something that can be judged right or wrong in retrospect.
Why? What's the theory? I am ignorant of economics.
Posted by Phillipa on November 17, 2013, at 17:44:05
In reply to Re: market crash in 3-6 months?, posted by sigismund on November 17, 2013, at 16:53:15
In the US it's bound to happen also
Posted by johnLA on November 17, 2013, at 20:03:23
In reply to market crash in 3-6 months?, posted by linkadge on November 17, 2013, at 15:58:38
and, as usual, if it does crash it will go back up.
it's the brutal truth of free market economies.
many will lose so very much of their wealth, while others (much fewer) will reap the benefits.
it's nothing new...
Posted by Willful on November 17, 2013, at 20:18:25
In reply to Re: market crash in 3-6 months? » linkadge, posted by johnLA on November 17, 2013, at 20:03:23
hey linkadge, I'm curious about your training in economics. Do you have some?
and what concretely are you basing your prediction on?
Just curious
Posted by linkadge on November 18, 2013, at 18:01:52
In reply to Re: market crash in 3-6 months? » linkadge, posted by johnLA on November 17, 2013, at 20:03:23
We're in the final phase of this rally. Pension funds and individual investors are starting to 'believe' in this rally. They'll buy in, then it will crash. Again, wallstreet will have effectively stolen mainstreet's money again.
The stock market is up ~30 percent year to date! You can only get 2% in a bank.
Posted by rjlockhart37 on November 19, 2013, at 0:08:19
In reply to Re: market crash in 3-6 months?, posted by linkadge on November 18, 2013, at 18:01:52
thats intresting....is there going to be a complete crash from the economy from the current plans in the govermement?
Posted by Willful on November 19, 2013, at 10:05:54
In reply to Re: market crash in 3-6 months?, posted by linkadge on November 18, 2013, at 18:01:52
Hi,
I'm still curious about your training in economics that gives you this analysis.
Did you study it in college or graduate school? Do you have some other insight into the stock market?
The recent periodicity of the stock market suggests that there would be a much longer period between the recent crash (if you want to call it that), and the next one. There have, at intervals, been specific steep downturns, like the end of the dotcom boom and the housing bubble--but the period of recovery and boom were fairly long, and there has been in general, an upward trend for the stock market, for many years. So I wondered why you were predicting a crash so soon after the last turbulence?
By way, I mean what is the logic behind it? Just because the stock market has gone up recently, doesn't mean that there will be an imminent crash. There have to be specific factors or markets that for specific reasons you think are inflated. So I was wondered what these clear warning signs were, in your mind?
Willful
Posted by sigismund on November 19, 2013, at 18:03:20
In reply to Re: market crash in 3-6 months?, posted by Willful on November 19, 2013, at 10:05:54
I have this feeling that the money does not know where to go to increase itself.
So, QE will be eased eventually, eventually rising activity will raise the price of energy (or would have before CSG) which will be a ceiling.
Then there's the limits of this planet, though......we're supposed to need 5 more, are we not, the way we are going?
>The recent periodicity of the stock market suggests that there would be a much longer period between the recent crash (if you want to call it that), and the next one.
But that was not true of the depression, was it? Needed a war to get out of it.
Posted by linkadge on November 20, 2013, at 15:01:45
In reply to Re: market crash in 3-6 months?, posted by Willful on November 19, 2013, at 10:05:54
FYI I lack the formal qualifications to make official investment advice. I studied mostly math and physics.
The recent rally is not based on economic fundamentals. The DOW has gained ~30 percent since last Nov! Company earnings have not grown at this pace. Employment rates (including the labor force participation rate) have not recovered significantly since the recession. The rally is fueled by artificially low interest rates and QE. Margin debt on the markets is very high (cheap money). The 'housing recovery' is phony. 60% of home purchases are 'all cash' - i.e. large institutions buying housing to flip.
The US government is simply reflating the exact same bubbles.
Linkadge
Posted by Phillipa on November 20, 2013, at 20:54:21
In reply to Re: market crash in 3-6 months? » Willful, posted by linkadge on November 20, 2013, at 15:01:45
Link that's what's happening here in Charlotte NC large corporations are buying up all the foreclosed homes and offering to buy adjoining properties and since renting now is what people are doing they are building apartment buildings for rentals. More housing in less space. Phillipa
Posted by sigismund on November 21, 2013, at 0:59:01
In reply to Re: market crash in 3-6 months? » Willful, posted by linkadge on November 20, 2013, at 15:01:45
I really have no idea what economic fundamentals are.
Not suggesting QE is one but......
Of course there are historic ratios that usually apply. We have the housing thing here in spades.
This is the end of the thread.
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