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Dr. Bob is Robert Hsiung, MD,
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Posted by Jay_Bravest_Face on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:20
In reply to Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy?, posted by Phillipa on June 29, 2008, at 12:33:07
> This isn't a political question it's personal as everyday someone is saying we're going into another depression like the late 20's when people jumped off roofs. Isn't there a way to survive without that. And if anxious or depressed the mind processes it differently at least mine does . I look around and imagine no doctors, no hospitals and even if there are no money to go. What about food and electricity. I am very scared big time. Phillipa
It's not that there is not *enough* of anything either. It's like in the Great Depression, certain very rich, wealthy fat-cats lived very, very well. They hogged all the money in their swiss bank accounts! That is what is happening now. Something like the top 5 percent of the worlds richest people own over 75 percent of the wealth! Sick...ughhh!!!!! It should be mandatory for people to take economics and political economy courses so people can get educated about this.
Yet people elect the same idiots in office, thinking all is just happy, happy. War, disease, famine...it's bad, horrid, and getting worse. It'll be interesting to see what happens in September. The INSANITY has GOT to stop.Here are the words to a GREAT fitting song:
"Rockin' In The Free World"
There's colors on the street
Red, white and blue
People shufflin' their feet
People sleepin' in their shoes
But there's a warnin' sign
on the road ahead
There's a lot of people sayin'
we'd be better off dead
Don't feel like Satan,
but I am to them
So I try to forget it,
any way I can.Keep on rockin' in the free world,
Keep on rockin' in the free world
Keep on rockin' in the free world,
Keep on rockin' in the free world.I see a woman in the night
With a baby in her hand
Under an old street light
Near a garbage can
Now she puts the kid away,
and she's gone to get a hit
She hates her life,
and what she's done to it
There's one more kid
that will never go to school
Never get to fall in love,
never get to be cool.Keep on rockin' in the free world,
Keep on rockin' in the free world
Keep on rockin' in the free world,
Keep on rockin' in the free world.We got a thousand points of light
For the homeless man
We got a kinder, gentler,
Machine gun hand
We got department stores
and toilet paper
Got styrofoam boxes
for the ozone layer
Got a BLACK MAN of the people,
says keep hope alive
Got little fuel to burn,
got roads to drive.
Got a white man who says
We'll fight for a hundred years
He won't have to pay the price
Millions of Mother's will pay in tearsKeep on rockin' in the free world,
Keep on rockin' in the free world
Keep on rockin' in the free world,
Keep on rockin' in the free world.(This is from a recent concert veraion with Neil Young and U2 doing this song)
Jay
Posted by Sigismund on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:20
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear..F*+^ing Yeah!, posted by Jay_Bravest_Face on June 29, 2008, at 20:08:28
Rupert Murdoch said that the invasion of Iraq would lead to oil costing US$20 a barrel. Now it's, what? maybe US$160.
Andrew Bacevich (he's a card carrying conservative of the older sort) said WWIV (four) has been happening for (I dunno?) 30 years and will be given an indefinite extension with the war on terror and dependance on Middle East Oil. The rest of the world is not fooled by this sort of thing.
Posted by TexasChic on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:20
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear..F*+^ing Yeah!, posted by Sigismund on June 29, 2008, at 20:33:35
I believe we are being psychologically controlled by the media. Its not that hard to do, people believe whatever they see on tv. I mean, it amazes me how many people believe in something as obvious as those alarmist emails! Friends of mine, intelligent people forward emails about antiperspirant causing breast cancer. I think future generations will think we were really stupid to so blindly believe everything we were told. But that's just theory on my part, I don't claim to know it all. I never have a place to express these opinions, everybody around me would just think I'm crazy. Not that me being crazy is so difficult to believe! Heh, heh!
-T
Posted by Sigismund on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:20
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear..F*+^ing Yeah!, posted by TexasChic on June 29, 2008, at 21:11:49
If I was well organised enough I could do a B in Terrorism and Political Conflict online. The world's largest Isamic nation is our neighbour and a percentage of them no doubt feel under some kind of broad threat which leads to radicalisation. I could get in on the ground floor of a growth industry. Maybe I could get a job with the security services?
Posted by Dinah on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:20
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » Horned One, posted by fayeroe on June 29, 2008, at 19:44:18
I didn't say the problem was caused by consumer anxiety. In fact I specifically said that the rising petroleum prices were a major problem right now, and if there is a solution there, I'm not aware of it.
What I was saying was that there are safeguards in place now that would make a disaster of the magnitude of the crash of '29 unlikely. And that yes, to some extent, consumer confidence influences the economy as well as being influenced by the economy.
However, I can't see any way at all petroleum costs at their current level won't cause major economic problems.
I'm no expert however. My recollections of college economics are relatively vague.
Posted by Sigismund on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:20
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » fayeroe, posted by Dinah on June 29, 2008, at 23:03:24
You sound like you know stuff about this.
Was the stagflation of the late 70s caused by the first oil shock?
Maybe not entirely?
It was presented as a failure of Keyensian economics, the cure for inflation being recession and vice versa, in that school of thought.
And then we got Milton Friedman, monetarism and whatnot.
Posted by 64Bowtie on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:20
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » Dinah, posted by Sigismund on June 29, 2008, at 23:28:48
I see no way out... We are gonna see:
1. major devaluation of the dollar against other world currencies (like 50%)
2. martial law declared before the general election in November
3. sinking of 1 of our 2 aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf
4. the Pope is asassinated w/no replacement
5. Isreal gets fed up and attacks Siria and Iran
6. price of oil starts settling lower than today when the speculators become regulated
7. China demands title to the lands in the nine western states that secures the accumulated 4 trillion dollar deficit in our balance of payments, which are met with our stiffest resistance ever seen (they better "duck & cover")
8. Hillary Clinton does not become our 1st female President, but is elected in May of 2009 as our 2nd female President
9. Solar activity in 2011 eventually forces the survivors underground till 2016Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...........
Posted by Sigismund on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:20
In reply to The Economy, et al, posted by 64Bowtie on June 30, 2008, at 2:12:29
You make me laugh.
I'm so impressed. Thank you.
It's terrible, isn't it?
Posted by Phil on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:21
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear..F*+^ing Yeah!, posted by TexasChic on June 29, 2008, at 21:11:49
"I think future generations will think we were really stupid to so blindly believe everything we were told."
Nope, future generations will be as dumb as we are.
Posted by fayeroe on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:21
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear..F*+^ing Yeah! » TexasChic, posted by Phil on June 30, 2008, at 6:02:07
> "I think future generations will think we were really stupid to so blindly believe everything we were told."
>
> Nope, future generations will be as dumb as we are.you're so right, Phil....dumb genes just dumb themselves right on down and everyone gets dumber.
Posted by Dinah on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:21
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » Dinah, posted by Sigismund on June 29, 2008, at 23:28:48
My recollection of the seventies crisis was that oil definitely played an important part. But I also remember a major problem was interest rates. Interest rates flew up to the high teens. Savings and loans and banks were holding low interest rate mortgages but forced to pay high interest rates in order to get depositors to deposit their money. As a result their losses started mounting, and to balance this, they started lending money to ventures that were willing to pay high interest rates because of their rather speculative nature. Eventually the whole thing went bust, and the government was forced to bail them out. I'm hoping that rules were put in place to prevent that from happening again. And I'm hoping the federal reserve is able to keep a better control on things. I felt so much more comfortable when Greenspan was there.
I was worried about the economy even before the oil problem. People have been encouraged to overinvest in real estate, to buy bigger homes than they can comfortably afford. The guidelines for how much of your income should be spent on mortgage payments seem different now than they used to be. The idea was that you could always flip houses. That real estate was always a sound investment. Which it may be long term, but isn't necessarily short term. This is led to a round of foreclosures, mortgage holders doing whatever they could to keep foreclosures from happening, and a general decline in the real estate market and new home construction. Which isn't all that unlike what happened in the seventies.
Still, the oil problem is so much worse than that. I know people who will have a really hard time keeping their jobs with oil prices being what they are. And if people start losing their jobs because of it, things will spiral downwards. Even now, as there is less disposable income and people have less confidence, there's going to be a ripple effect in nonessential sales. Clothing for one, as TexasChic pointed out. And our city relies heavily on tourism. There are going to be fewer people who can justify taking a vacation, and less money to spend when they get to their destination. As people are laid off in the hospitality industry, they'll have no money to spend on things locally, and the entire local economy will suffer. And so on.
I just don't totally understand what's going on with the oil prices. I understand part of it is totally out of our control. Developing countries, particularly China, are developing and their demand for oil is skyrocketing. Since oil production doesn't skyrocket along with it, our days of cheap oil may be over forever. Yet I've also read that oil companies are passing along increases in oil prices without passing along decreases. And that speculation in oil futures is artificially driving prices higher. Surely the government could step in on those practices. Yet neither party seems to be making any effort to do so, so probably I'm understanding it wrong. If I was understanding it properly, it would make a compelling election year topic. Since it's not, I must assume I'm incorrect. It seems unlikely that both parties are so interested in the allowing of offshore drilling that they'd be willing to give up such an important political advantage.
I've lived through a few economic crises, and I ultimately have faith that this too shall pass. But I am also prepared for some rough times. :(
(I was recently considering ordering something made of acrylic, and discovered that the company had raised its prices 15% because of increased oil costs, acrylic being a petroleum byproduct. So the implications to costs rising go far further than the gas pump.)
I think long term the answer is definitely to develop alternative fuel sources. But short term that's infeasible. People's cars are made to run on gasoline. Converting even to ethynol would would be very costly. Not to mention the entire production and distribution system. I also have personal reservations about switching to a fuel source that if widely adopted would be dependent on crops. Mother nature is not known for her cooperation in producing a steady supply of crops. It's definitely something that needs to be considered. Eventually, Americans might even be brought to embrace public transport.
As far as stagflation goes, I don't recall overly much about that term and the causes. But I'd think runaway oil prices would definitely contribute to rising prices and economic stagnation. I can't really remember what other factors came into play.
Or I could be completely wrong about everything. What do I know? The powers that be can't seem to figure anything out. I'd probably understand better if Daddy was still around. It was rather a hobby of his. I really am no expert.
Posted by Horned One on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:21
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy?, posted by Horned One on June 29, 2008, at 18:08:00
I'm not sure what your point was. I don't live in America. Americans aren't the only people affected by rising oil prices.
-Horny
Posted by Midnightblue on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:21
In reply to Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy?, posted by Phillipa on June 29, 2008, at 12:33:07
Phillipa was talking about there being no doctors or hospitals. I'm sorry, but I don't see that happening in my lifetime. That is what I'm not going to be anxious about.
Concerning the cost of oil. That is driven by:
1. Increased demand--China, India and other developing nations now want and need more fuel.
2. Increased cost to find and recover oil--all the "easy" oil has been tapped. Most rigs are drilling more than a mile down. And just because you drill doesn't mean you will actually recover something from a hole. It can cost a fortune to drill a dry hole. Renting a rig can cost $500,000 to $1,000,000 a day.
3. Not all oil is sweet--which is the easier to process type. Some is trapped in tar sands. Some is heavy sour. It is the sweet everyone wants that costs so much.
4. There aren't enough rigs or people to run them. Many rigs were scrapped, and the oil industry has not always been kind to the people they hire. There are just so many times a person will tolerate being laid off and go back to work for you.
5. Much of the world resources of oil are in politically unstable countries.
6. It costs more to drill/produce/refine in an environmentally responsible way. This is not a bad thing, this is GOOD, but it does cost more.
7. Weather--ever notice how the costs of oil goes up when there is a hurricane? That is because all the rigs must be evacuated and all refineries much be shut down. It can take weeks or months to get them back on line and up to full speed.
8. Speculation--yes there is some. Think about the run on Wii and Wii Fit right now. Both are hard to get. People are buying them up and selling them for more on Ebay. If they would produce more, or if people suddenly decided they didn't want one, the price would go down.
9. The weak dollar. I understand this, but honestly don't know how to fix it. Oil is priced in dollars.
Posted by Dinah on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:21
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy?, posted by Midnightblue on June 30, 2008, at 12:50:39
You obviously have more familiarity with this than I do. I've been wondering if there is some hope that higher gas prices will cause pressure to allow drilling in places currently off limits? That's about all I've heard from the politicians in terms of answers.
I agree with you about the other causes. I'm not sure there's anything that can be done with any of them.
I sure have seen the quickest turnaround in history in vehicle choice though. Not many of the newest vehicles I see on the road are high gas consumers.
Posted by kid47 on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:22
In reply to Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy?, posted by Phillipa on June 29, 2008, at 12:33:07
There are lots of very complicated conditions and reactions that we could blame for the current state of things in the U.S. I've chosen to narrow it down to a few:
Corporate greed (Exxon posted 40 Billion dollars in profits).
A corrupt and short sighted government.
A society raised to be coddled mindless consumers. (I am the poster child for this one)
I think what we are experiencing is a major financial and enviromental *correction* after generations of neglect and abuse. I believe it will get worse before it gets better....but I do believe it will get better.
It has an awful lot to do with how "we the people" respond to this "warning shot"These statements are mine and mine alone. This is of course all IMHO. If anyone feels accused, assaulted, afraid, attacked, alarmed, assailed, amused, aghast, put down, put out, put upon, put asunder, put away, disrespected, disregarded, disturbed, disenfranchised, unhappy, unnerved, unloved, untoward, unemployed, unclean, unsavory, or is just plain offended by anything I have said here, I am truly, sorry. I hope that covers it.... phew...no wonder I seldom post any more.
Peace Out
kid47
Posted by Midnightblue on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:22
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » Midnightblue, posted by Dinah on June 30, 2008, at 13:31:37
There is hope--the problem is a company pays to lease an area and they only have a few years to develop it. I think usually 5. So they have probably already evaluated fairly well most of the leases that they have.
Let's say an oil company has a lease, but has only drilled one well on it. If it was a dry hole or poor producer, they might not be eager to drill 3 or 4 more to see if there is something there after all. The rock formation might not be the kind the geologist said it was, or the formation may be smaller then they thought.
Most of the "off limit" lands were evaluated 30-40 years ago. What was not profitable or accessible then, very well could be profitable now. The technology today is much better, both at guessing what is in the ground and at getting it out. They are drilling six miles down offshore now.
There are quite a few smaller independents going back into the old oilfields that were plugged and abandoned by the major oil companies. They are re-opening wells and getting a few more barrels out. At $20 a barrel for oil, it wouldn't be worth spending what they would have to to recover it, but at $100 or more they can make a profit.
Ultimately, we need to look at every source of power we can. There are some things we MUST have oil for. For others, there is natural gas which was just burned off for years because no one wanted it. Nuclear power must be looked at, but that can take years to put into place. Solar and wind must be used where ever possible.
You don't have to have oil to generate electricity.
One other thing, some countries subsidize the cost of gas to make it cheaper. The United States does not. China and India heavily subsidize the cost of gas. So not only do they have more and more people wanting gas, they are getting it at below market costs.
There isn't going to be an easy or quick fix, and anyone who tells you there will be isn't telling you the truth.
Posted by Sigismund on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:22
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear..F*+^ing Yeah! » Phil, posted by fayeroe on June 30, 2008, at 9:02:35
Queensland is mostly coal and there's heaps of gas off WA.
We can have an 'all-American themepark' here.
Posted by Dinah on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:22
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » Dinah, posted by Midnightblue on June 30, 2008, at 14:20:19
Yeah, I've seen that operators are redrilling wells that have declined in production, because now they now can drill to a deeper level.
I heard someone refer to petroleum used in the generation of electricity, and I confess I wasn't aware that anyone did that. I knew of coal plants, but I thought the rest were hydroelectric or nuclear.
Definitely no easy fix. If someone were to invent tomorrow an affordable and effective alternative to combustion engines, it would still take years and years to replace the existing vehicles. And the same with other sorts of oil consumers. Or to build mass transit systems even if they were safe, clean, and went where people need to go. It's a mess.
Posted by fayeroe on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:22
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy?, posted by kid47 on June 30, 2008, at 14:00:54
"Corporate greed (Exxon posted 40 Billion dollars in profits)."
The courts just reduced the fine imposed upon Exxon, for Valdez, to pennies on the dollar. The Alaskan Indians are up the proverbial creek without a paddle on that one........
Boycott Exxon, Chevron and Mobil.
Anyone see the guy on the news who is running his small truck on "water"?
Posted by fayeroe on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:22
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear..F*+^ing Yeah! » fayeroe, posted by Sigismund on June 30, 2008, at 15:25:20
> Queensland is mostly coal and there's heaps of gas off WA.
>
> *****We can have an 'all-American themepark' here.****Unless Dolly Parton designs it, that oughta scare you straight!
Posted by karen_kay on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:22
In reply to Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy?, posted by Phillipa on June 29, 2008, at 12:33:07
hell yes! if i can't drive around to clear my thoughts, while puffing on a camel and drinking a $5. coffee, i wonder if life's worth it anymore...
we should echange goods for services, i think. if for nothing else, just to spice things up a bit. you have NO idea what kk'd do for a carton of camels, expensive coffee and plenty of gas money.
Posted by Phillipa on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:23
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » Phillipa, posted by karen_kay on June 30, 2008, at 19:54:22
KK does it consist of a pole, dim lights, and many males stuffing dollars somewhere? Kidding but seriously we have a serious problem. And trickle down is the key word to me. And yes docs less of them as the insurance companies do not pay the same as they used to to them and their malpractice rises daily. Also agree on too big houses. Unneccessary. They say Charlotte is doing the best of all the States with Real Estate. But the problem is those wanting to relocate here from other states can't sell their houses. People I see daily buying expensive things sure bet their credit cards are maxed out. They do say a lot of old money in Charlotte. But what do I Know nothing. Sigi I want to move to Australia and play with boxing kangaroos sure bet kk will come also and win the match. Love Phillipa
Posted by Sigismund on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:23
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » karen_kay, posted by Phillipa on June 30, 2008, at 20:59:19
There's a kangaroo or two (or perhaps it's they are wallabies) down in the valley here.
In Tasmania there are miniature ones called potaroos, maybe about the same size as a rabbit, and they live on moss.
I just went for a look for one and found this
http://www.news-tasmania.com/tarkine-images/tarkine-2s.jpg
They want to build a pulp mill there to use up the last of the forests. That is the bright side of the credit crunch....it does not look like they will get the money, even though they own the state government.
Posted by fayeroe on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:23
In reply to Re: Anyone Else Starting To Fear The Economy? » Phillipa, posted by Sigismund on June 30, 2008, at 22:57:28
Sorry that I am going to go off subject of the 'roos.....
Saying "pulp mill" reminded me of where I grew up and why I become ill when I go back and see the destruction that a large lumber whore has caused the area.Google southeastern Oklahoma and all of the brown that you will see will be "clear cuts"...The trees/vegetation are literally scraped off of the mountains, piled up and burned. Loblobby pines are planted for harvesting. The silt from the bulldozing goes downhill (just like something else) and fills the streams and lakes.
I grew up there and spoke to the legislature when the state forestry department wanted to allow the ethical lumber company to sell out to Weyerhauser. Obviously, even pointing out that the state of Oregon had run them off did no good.
Thar's money to be made in them thar hills....
Posted by 64Bowtie on July 6, 2008, at 13:09:23
In reply to Re: The Economy, et al » 64Bowtie, posted by Sigismund on June 30, 2008, at 3:12:55
Thanks for responding... Guess I sounded a little overstated while repeating the many predictions that I have seen and heard that also have at least a vague thread of plausibility... I didn't attempt to force anything... Trust me; the list is much longer but also disjoint, whereas this shortened list is sorta "right-now" and interdependent...
Rod
PS: In my list Bush/Cheney play "pivot-man......." as one common thread
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Dr. Bob is Robert Hsiung, MD,
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